The outlook for the next three months, May-July, is here. And, it's not good news for Arizona.
The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of NOAA, issues long-range forecasts. The forecasts are not specific, but they do offer a general look at how weather should wind up being. In this forecast, there is a VERY strong likelihood that Arizona will be hotter-than-normal when we average weather over the next three months.
In this image, much of the southern United States is in a zone of forecasted hotter-than-normal temperatures.
The reason for this forecast is primarily related to the current and ongoing drought in the southern and especially southwestern United States. Where there is drought, the ground heats and the air at the surface rises. When air over a large area rises with the absence of moisture (the ground is dry), an upper-level area of high pressure forms. This, in turn, prevents or inhibits formation of clouds and ensuing rainfall.
In summary, our ongoing drought self-perpetuates, resulting in hot and dry conditions being widespread. We are in for a hot, dry three months.
This drought and heat will likely lead to more massive dust storms, known as Haboobs. Click here to learn about them.