Now that the Monsoon is gone, we are entering the fall dry season with a January-to-present rainfall deficit of almost 2 inches.
So, a wet winter would be great!
The outlook is based mostly on a developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific. Strong El Niños that always bring very wet winters to southern Arizona. This El Niño, though, looks like it might only grow to moderate strength.
For that reason, it's quite difficult to nail down our rainfall/snowfall forecast for December 2012 - February 2013 (our winter rainy season.)
However, the Climate Prediction Center puts southern Arizona in an area of 40% chance for above normal precipitation for the period.
Let's hope El Niño gets stronger!
Read about El Niño and La Niña on the weather 101 page.