A disturbance located along the northern Gulf Coast will drift west this weekend giving much of East Texas a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We are already seeing the affects of this system with the first spoke of energy rotating through the area this morning producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The storms this morning are producing very heavy rain and a tremendous amount of cloud to ground lightning. The activity will likely decrease before noon today before another spoke of energy rotates through East Texas this afternoon. This will cause another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Again, any one of these storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and lots of cloud to ground lightning.
The disturbance across the northern Gulf is moving at a very slow pace. This will keep the chance of scattered thunderstorms on the forecast through the weekend. In addition, temperatures will be held down a bit thanks to the increase in cloud cover. The overall threat of severe weather is very low through the weekend.
However, all storms will produce a tremendous amount of cloud to ground lightning due to the high moisture content in the atmosphere. Earlier this morning one of the thunderstorms produced what is called a positive lightning bolt that hit the ground 15 miles away from the outer edge of the rain core. This is why we always say if you can here thunder stay indoors until 30 minutes after the thunder has passed. Positive lightning bolts shoot from the top of the storm and race down towards the ground miles away from the core. So areas that are sunny could still see lightning strike if a storm is within 10 to 12 miles.
This disturbance will move west of the area by next week and the heat will build back in. The high pressure that has been causing above normal temperatures for the northeast will be moving into our area by Wednesday of next week. If we can get enough rain this weekend we could escape the 100 degree temperatures thanks to the added soil moisture. If the storms are more isolated than expected this weekend, then much of East Texas could be near the century mark before next week is over.
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