Active hurricane season forecast for west coast of Mexico - Tucson News Now

Active hurricane season forecast for west coast of Mexico

An El Niño developing in the East Pacific Ocean favors the development of tropical systems in this area. This is the reason the 2014 forecast is for an average or above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes off the west coast of Mexico and Central America. The East Pacific Ocean hurricane season runs May 15 to November 30 each year. 

Follow the tropics at TucsonNewsNow.com/tropics.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) here in the United States released the official forecast on Thursday, May 22. According to the NHC the "outlook calls for a 50% chance of an above-normal season, a 40% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below normal season."

"The key climate factor behind the outlook is the likely development of El Niño this summer. El Niño decreases the vertical wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, favoring more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, part of the U.S. National Weather Service. "The eastern Pacific has been in an era of low activity for hurricanes since 1995, but this pattern will be offset in 2014 by the impacts of El Niño."

The NHC forecast is calling for a 70% chance of 14 to 20 named storms. Of these named storms 7 to 11 are forecast to become hurricanes; 3 to 6 of which could become major storms, measured as Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


The equivalent of the NHC in Mexico is a division of the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Their forecast is for 14 named storms, 7 of those becoming hurricanes with 5 strengthening into major storms. 

Below is a list of names for the East Pacific Hurricane Season. The first hurricane of the season, Amanda, formed on May 23. 


  • MonsoonMore>>

  • Dust detection and warning system may be in operation by fall 2018

    Dust detection and warning system may be in operation by fall 2018

    Friday, March 2 2018 1:20 PM EST2018-03-02 18:20:08 GMT
    (Source: Arizona Department of Transportation)(Source: Arizona Department of Transportation)
    (Source: Arizona Department of Transportation)(Source: Arizona Department of Transportation)

    Arizona Department of Transportation engineers are working on the design now, focusing first on a 10-mile stretch from Picacho Peak to Eloy.  

    Arizona Department of Transportation engineers are working on the design now, focusing first on a 10-mile stretch from Picacho Peak to Eloy.  

  • Monsoon 101: Why is dew point important to the monsoon?

    `

    Wednesday, February 28 2018 2:21 PM EST2018-02-28 19:21:11 GMT
    Warm, moist tropical air is needed for monsoon storms to get going over Southeast Arizona.  That is why we track the dew point numbers very closely this time of year. When dew points are below 54°, the
    Why are the dew points important to the monsoon?
  • Tracking the rise and fall of floods

    Tracking the rise and fall of floods

    Monday, September 15 2014 1:38 PM EDT2014-09-15 17:38:27 GMT
    Wednesday, February 28 2018 2:21 PM EST2018-02-28 19:21:18 GMT

    Flash Flood Warnings are issued for an area by the local National Weather Service Office.  In Tucson, that office is located on the University of Arizona campus.  The meteorologists on duty at the time

    The extremes of flash floods can be seen on streamflow gauges located across the area.

Powered by Frankly